Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9C. Montgomery singled to right, Vargas scored.4–1
- 8Paredes singled to right, Peña scored.4–0
- 6Paredes singled to right, Peña scored, Smith scored and Alvarez scored on fielding error by right fielder B. Montgomery, Paredes to third.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 52%
- ML HOU +100 / CHW -121
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CHW: Elo 53.3%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- CHW -110
- HOU +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +12 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +23 Elo | CHW 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3025–27 | Road vs home | 31–182nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Elo rating | 149019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–52 | 54–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–27 | 9–20 |
| Underdog | 36–25 | 45–28 |
| Overs–unders | 54–45–6 | 58–42–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–8 CHW in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.