Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Murakami homered to right center (398 feet).3–12
- 8Perez homered to left (376 feet), Meidroth scored.3–11
- 7Benintendi singled to left, Murakami scored, B. Montgomery to second.3–9
- 7Murakami singled to center, Romo scored and Perez scored.3–8
- 7Meidroth homered to left center (382 feet).3–6
- 6Vargas homered to left (393 feet), Antonacci scored.3–5
- 5Trammell homered to center (426 feet).3–3
- 3Murakami grounded out to second, Romo scored, Antonacci to third.2–3
- 3Peña homered to right center (394 feet).2–2
- 1Murakami homered to left (385 feet), Antonacci scored.1–2
- 1Peña homered to left (393 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 53%
- ML HOU +102 / CHW -123
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CHW: Elo 50.4%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- CHW -111
- HOU +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.4 – 4.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −3 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +3 Elo | CHW 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 12th of 3026–27 | Road vs home | 31–193rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 148820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–52 | 54–49 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–27 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 37–25 | 45–28 |
| Overs–unders | 54–46–6 | 58–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 13–8 CHW in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.