New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ali SanchezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Noah SchultzPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Antonacci scored on error, C. Montgomery safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Volpe, Murakami safe at third on error.9–5
- 8Sánchez homered to left (371 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored and Grisham scored.9–4
- 8Chisholm Jr. reached on bunt single to pitcher, Domínguez scored on throwing error by pitcher Newcomb, Volpe safe at third on error.6–4
- 7Rice singled to right, Rosario scored.5–4
- 5C. Montgomery singled to right, Vargas scored.4–4
- 4Jones grounded out to second, Chisholm Jr. scored, Caballero to second.4–3
- 4Chisholm Jr. doubled to center, Domínguez scored and Goldschmidt scored.3–3
- 4Volpe grounded out to shortstop, Rice scored, Domínguez to second, Goldschmidt to third.1–3
- 1B. Montgomery tripled to left, C. Montgomery scored.0–3
- 1Meidroth hit sacrifice fly to center, Murakami scored.0–2
- 1C. Montgomery singled to right, Grichuk scored, Murakami to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 56%
- ML NYY -144 / CHW +119
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.2%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -129
- CHW +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −19 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Noah Schultz: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +50 Elo | NYY 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.46th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 4th of 3033–23 | Road vs home | 32–193rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301539 | Elo rating | 149219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–50 | 55–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 40–42 | 10–21 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 45–28 |
| Overs–unders | 44–56–5 | 59–43–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 15–7 CHW in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.