Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Happ doubled to right, Bregman scored.4–2
- 10Bregman doubled to right, Suzuki scored.3–2
- 7Wetherholt homered to right (406 feet).2–2
- 7Busch singled to left, Swanson scored, Suzuki to second.2–1
- 4Happ flied out to right, Bregman scored on throwing error by right fielder Nootbaar.1–1
- 2Torres singled to left, Nootbaar scored, Winn to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML CHC -106 / STL -114
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- STL: Elo 44.1%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +6 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +41 Elo | CHC 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 6th of 3031–25 | Road vs home | 28–3122nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–56 | 60–48 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–42 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 26–14 | 48–23 |
| Overs–unders | 56–46–6 | 43–59–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 26–22 STL in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 48.