New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Randal GrichukBatting2-2
- Sean BurkePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 11Peters walked, Meidroth scored, Antonacci to second, Murakami to third.1–2
- 10Benintendi singled to center, Peters scored.1–1
- 10Grisham singled to center, Volpe scored, Sánchez to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 50%
- ML NYY -110 / CHW -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- CHW: Elo 47.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CHW -100
- NYY -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 3.8 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +11 | NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +19 Elo | NYY 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 4th of 3035–24 | Road vs home | 33–215th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 4th of 301541 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–52 | 57–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 41–44 | 10–21 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 47–29 |
| Overs–unders | 46–57–5 | 61–44–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 17–8 CHW in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 25.