New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Spencer JonesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Sam AntonacciBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 12Quero singled to center, Peters scored.5–6
- 11Murakami scored on pickoff error by catcher Sánchez.5–5
- 11Murakami scored on pickoff error by catcher Sánchez.5–5
- 11Volpe hit sacrifice fly to right, Sánchez scored.5–4
- 8Murakami homered to center (404 feet).4–4
- 8Antonacci homered to right (346 feet), Meidroth scored.4–3
- 7Benintendi doubled to right, Murakami scored, Vargas to third.4–1
- 1Jones homered to left center (380 feet), Domínguez scored and Goldschmidt scored.4–0
- 1Goldschmidt singled to left, Rice scored, Domínguez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -145 / CHW +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- CHW +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +4 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +42 Elo | NYY 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3035–23 | Road vs home | 32–215th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–51 | 56–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 41–43 | 10–21 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 46–29 |
| Overs–unders | 45–57–5 | 60–44–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 17–7 CHW in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 24.