Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Narváez hit sacrifice fly to center, Jones scored, Duran to second, Durbin to third.9–4
- 7Duran grounded out to pitcher, Durbin scored, Monasterio to third.8–4
- 7Monasterio doubled to left, Abreu scored and Yoshida scored, Durbin to third.7–4
- 7Rafaela homered to left (405 feet), Sogard scored.5–4
- 5Ohtani homered to right (386 feet), Alfonzo scored.3–4
- 5Alfonzo singled to center, Tucker scored, E. Hernández thrown out at third. Los Angeles Dodgers challenged: call on the field was upheld.3–2
- 4Freeman singled to center, Ohtani scored.3–1
- 3Rafaela scored on error and Sogard scored, Yoshida safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Freeman, Contreras to second.3–0
- 2Duran singled to center, Durbin scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML BOS +114 / LAD -137
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.8 – 4.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −5 | BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Edgardo Henriquez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +49 Elo | LAD 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3032–22 | Road vs home | 33–204th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 5th of 301535 | Elo rating | 15711st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–54 | 52–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–39 | 46–55 |
| Underdog | 26–15 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 46–58–4 | 49–58–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–6 LAD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.