Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Giménez reached on infield single to third, Varsho scored, Clement to third.1–6
- 7Abreu doubled to left, Jones scored.0–6
- 7Jones doubled to center, Duran scored and Monasterio scored.0–5
- 4Duran singled to center, Contreras scored and Durbin scored.0–3
- 3Rafaela singled to right, Monasterio scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML TOR +122 / BOS -147
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 59.7%, market 56.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -132
- TOR +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.4 – 4.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −5 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 1.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +68 Elo | BOS 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 19th of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 24–2925th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 16th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–56 | 51–52 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–38 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 53–48–4 | 46–53–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 25–22 BOS in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 47.