Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Dylan BeaversBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Henderson scored on Morán wild pitch.5–1
- 7Henderson scored on Morán wild pitch.5–1
- 4Yoshida singled to left, Contreras scored.4–1
- 1Rodríguez doubled to left, Beavers scored.4–0
- 1Beavers singled to center, Henderson and O'Neill scored.3–0
- 1Alonso scored, O'Neill to second and Henderson to third on Rivera wild pitch.1–0
- 1Alonso scored on Rivera wild pitch, O'Neill to second on wild pitch by Rivera, Henderson to third on wild pitch by Rivera.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML BAL +108 / BOS -130
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.2%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -118
- BAL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +5 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Eduardo Rivera: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +57 Elo | BOS 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 21st of 3021–28 | Road vs home | 23–2724th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 17th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15365th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–50 | 50–50 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 26–29 | 24–35 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 52–46–4 | 45–51–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 23–24 BOS in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 47.