Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Victor Mesa Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Contreras homered to right center (414 feet), Rafaela scored.1–6
- 3González grounded out to second, Contreras scored.1–4
- 3Durbin grounded into fielder's choice to third, Abreu scored, Durbin second, Contreras safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Caminero.1–3
- 3Jones scored on a passed ball by Feduccia, Contreras to second on passed ball by Feduccia, Abreu to third on passed ball by Feduccia.1–2
- 3Jones scored on a passed ball by Feduccia, Contreras to second on passed ball by Feduccia, Abreu to third on passed ball by Feduccia.1–2
- 2Monasterio doubled to left, Durbin scored.1–1
- 2Mesa Jr. hit inside-the-park home run to right-center field (317 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML TB +102 / BOS -123
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.8%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -111
- TB +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 4.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +13 | TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +47 Elo | BOS 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 18th of 3021–26 | Road vs home | 20–2728th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 8th of 301512 | Elo rating | 15315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–40 | 48–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 36–22 | 22–34 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 44–48–5 | 44–49–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 26–22 BOS in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 48.