Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mason EnglertPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Eduardo RiveraPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Seigler doubled to right, Cheng scored.3–5
- 3Abreu homered to right center (405 feet).3–4
- 3Caminero homered to left (423 feet).3–3
- 1Contreras homered to left center (367 feet).2–3
- 1Abreu homered to right center (422 feet), Rafaela scored.2–2
- 1DeLuca singled to left, Caminero scored and Vilade scored, DeLuca to second, Mullins safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Duran.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML TB +109 / BOS -131
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.1%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +6 | TB: Mason Englert: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BOS: Eduardo Rivera: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +43 Elo | BOS 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 15th of 3021–24 | Road vs home | 18–2729th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 8th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15295th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–39 | 47–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 10–0 |
| Favorite | 36–22 | 21–33 |
| Underdog | 20–17 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–47–5 | 43–48–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 26–20 BOS in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 46.