Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting1-4
- Griffin JaxPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Carlos NarvaezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Narváez homered to left (412 feet).0–10
- 6Durbin singled to right, Rafaela scored, Abreu to third.0–9
- 6Rafaela doubled to left, Narváez scored.0–8
- 6Cheng reached on bunt single to catcher, Duran scored, Narváez to second.0–7
- 6Narváez reached on bunt single to catcher, González scored on error, Duran to second, Duran safe at third on throwing error by catcher Fortes.0–6
- 6Duran singled to right, Durbin scored and Yoshida scored, González to third.0–5
- 4Yoshida homered to right (328 feet).0–3
- 2Narváez singled to center, Yoshida scored.0–2
- 2Duran hit sacrifice fly to center, Durbin scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML TB -101 / BOS -119
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.4%, market 52.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -108
- TB +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +12 | TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +38 Elo | BOS 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 14th of 3021–23 | Road vs home | 17–2730th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 8th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15265th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–38 | 46–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 36–22 | 20–33 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 42–47–5 | 42–48–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 26–19 BOS in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 45.