Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonny DeLucaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Abreu homered to right center (412 feet), Rafaela scored.6–7
- 7Rafaela doubled to center, Duran scored.6–5
- 7Yoshida grounded out to shortstop, Monasterio scored, Duran to second.6–4
- 7DeLuca homered to left center (394 feet).6–3
- 4Díaz singled to left, Palacios scored.5–3
- 4Mesa Jr. homered to right (404 feet).4–3
- 4Simpson scored on throwing error by catcher Narváez.3–3
- 4Simpson scored on throwing error by catcher Narváez.3–3
- 3Abreu homered to center (435 feet).2–3
- 2Jones homered to left (407 feet), Monasterio scored.2–2
- 2Fortes singled to right, Simpson scored.2–0
- 2Simpson reached on infield single to second, Vilade scored on throwing error by second baseman Seigler, Simpson to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML TB -102 / BOS -118
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.3%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -107
- TB +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −8 | TB: Ian Seymour: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +30 Elo | BOS 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 16th of 3021–25 | Road vs home | 19–2728th of 30 |
| 4th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 8th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15305th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–40 | 48–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 10–0 |
| Favorite | 36–22 | 22–33 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–48–5 | 43–49–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 26–21 BOS in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 47.