Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Encarnacion-Strand singled to left, Mayo scored.3–6
- 4Rafaela homered to left center (377 feet).2–6
- 4Encarnacion-Strand homered to center (424 feet).2–5
- 3Duran hit sacrifice fly to center, Durbin scored.1–5
- 3O'Neill doubled to center, Alonso scored.1–4
- 1Duran tripled to right, Contreras scored and Durbin scored.0–4
- 1Durbin singled to center, Rafaela scored and Yoshida scored, Contreras to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 61%
- ML BAL +144 / BOS -175
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.4%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -155
- BAL +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 5.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +15 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +73 Elo | BOS 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 21st of 3021–27 | Road vs home | 22–2726th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15355th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–49 | 49–50 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 26–29 | 23–35 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 52–45–4 | 45–50–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 23–23 BOS in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 46.