Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Payton TollePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Durbin homered to left center (364 feet).5–6
- 7Rafaela singled to left, Cheng scored on error, Rafaela safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Ward.5–5
- 7O'Neill grounded out to second, Ward scored, Alonso to second.5–4
- 6Contreras doubled to left, Abreu scored.4–4
- 6Encarnacion-Strand singled to center, Taveras scored, Jackson to third.4–3
- 6Jackson singled to left, O'Neill scored, Taveras to third.3–3
- 5Encarnacion-Strand homered to left center (395 feet).2–3
- 3Contreras reached on infield single to second, Abreu scored.1–3
- 3Abreu doubled to center, Rafaela scored on error, Abreu safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Henderson.1–2
- 2Duran hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored.1–1
- 1O'Neill hit a ground rule double, Henderson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 60%
- ML BAL +139 / BOS -168
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.1%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -150
- BAL +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −4 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +50 Elo | BOS 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 20th of 3021–26 | Road vs home | 21–2727th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–49 | 49–49 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 26–29 | 23–34 |
| Underdog | 25–20 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 51–45–4 | 44–50–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 23–22 BOS in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 45.