Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Straw scored.1–3
- 3Springer singled to left, Pinango scored.1–2
- 3Díaz singled to right, Feduccia scored.1–1
- 1Kirk reached on infield single to third, Clement scored, Springer to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML TB -118 / TOR -102
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- TB: Elo 52.4%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -107
- TOR +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +2 | TB: Casey Legumina: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +17 Elo | TB 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.930th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 15th of 3024–27 | Road vs home | 25–3024th of 30 |
| 4th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 8th of 301518 | Elo rating | 149318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–41 | 47–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–22 | 21–38 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 46–50–5 | 52–46–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 31–17 TOR in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 48.