Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Nick FortesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-4
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fortes homered to left center (408 feet).7–1
- 7Caminero doubled to center, Díaz scored.6–1
- 6Mullins homered to center (411 feet).5–1
- 5Caminero singled to left, Díaz scored, Caminero out stretching at second.4–1
- 5Fortes scored on error, Díaz safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Giménez.3–1
- 4Kirk singled to right, Springer scored.2–1
- 3Aranda singled to right, Walls scored.2–0
- 2Mesa Jr. homered to center (412 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML TB +148 / TOR -180
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.7%, market 61.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -159
- TB +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +22 | TB: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 1.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +19 Elo | TOR 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.514th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 21st of 3021–27 | Road vs home | 25–2720th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 10th of 301510 | Elo rating | 150215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–41 | 47–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–22 | 21–35 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 44–49–5 | 50–45–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 28–17 TOR in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 45.