Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Victor Mesa Jr.Batting2-3, 2 RBI
- Griffin JaxPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer MilesPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kirk homered to left center (406 feet).4–2
- 6Williamson walked, Mullins scored, Walls to second, Mesa Jr. to third.4–1
- 6Mesa Jr. singled to left, Caminero scored, Mullins to second.3–1
- 6Simpson hit sacrifice fly to center, Díaz scored.2–1
- 2Mesa Jr. singled to center, Simpson scored.1–1
- 1Springer grounded out to first, Lukes scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML TB -109 / TOR -111
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.8%, market 50.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -101
- TB +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.7 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +9 | TB: Griffin Jax: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Braydon Fisher: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +13 Elo | TOR 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.030th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 3023–27 | Road vs home | 25–2923rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 8th of 301516 | Elo rating | 149517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–41 | 47–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–22 | 21–37 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 46–49–5 | 52–45–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 30–17 TOR in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 47.