Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Nick FortesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-4
- Kevin GausmanPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz homered to center (418 feet), Walls scored and Fortes scored.12–2
- 9Fortes singled to left, Williamson scored, Walls to second.9–2
- 6Okamoto grounded into double play, third to second to first, Springer scored, Varsho out at second.8–2
- 6Varsho reached on infield single to first, Clement scored, Springer to third.8–1
- 5Fortes homered to left center (378 feet), Simpson scored and Williamson scored.8–0
- 4DeLuca singled to left, Mullins scored.5–0
- 4Díaz scored on throwing error by catcher Valenzuela, Mullins stole third.4–0
- 4Díaz scored on throwing error by catcher Valenzuela, Mullins stole third.4–0
- 1Simpson singled to right, DeLuca scored.3–0
- 1DeLuca singled to right, Caminero and Mullins scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML TB -111 / TOR -108
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- TB: Elo 49.1%, market 50.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -101
- TOR +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 3.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −11 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +6 Elo | TOR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.030th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 17th of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 25–2820th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15025th of 30 |
| 9th of 301513 | Elo rating | 149915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–41 | 47–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 36–22 | 21–36 |
| Underdog | 22–19 | 26–17 |
| Overs–unders | 45–49–5 | 51–45–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 29–17 TOR in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 46.