Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Red Sox- Andruw MonasterioBatting1-3
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. reached on infield single to second, Giménez scored, Lukes to third.6–0
- 3Clement doubled to left, Varsho scored.5–0
- 3Springer homered to left (366 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Okamoto scored.4–0
- 3Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Lukes scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML TOR -104 / BOS -116
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.3%, market 51.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -105
- TOR +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.4 – 3.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +14 | TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +58 Elo | BOS 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 21st of 3021–27 | Road vs home | 24–2824th of 30 |
| 4th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 17th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15355th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–56 | 51–51 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–38 | 25–36 |
| Underdog | 26–18 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 53–47–4 | 46–52–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 24–22 BOS in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 46.