Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Trey YesavagePitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Red Sox- Anthony SeiglerBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Seigler doubled to left, González scored.4–6
- 8González doubled to left, Duran scored.4–5
- 8Giménez hit sacrifice fly to center, Lukes scored.4–4
- 7Okamoto homered to center (408 feet), Clement scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.3–4
- 6Monasterio hit sacrifice fly to center, Yoshida scored.0–4
- 3Rafaela homered to left (376 feet), Seigler scored. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.0–3
- 1Seigler homered to right (390 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML TOR +109 / BOS -131
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 56.3%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 4.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −12 | TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +44 Elo | BOS 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 19th of 3021–26 | Road vs home | 23–2826th of 30 |
| 4th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 16th of 301495 | Elo rating | 15335th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–55 | 50–51 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–38 | 24–36 |
| Underdog | 26–17 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 52–47–4 | 45–52–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 24–21 BOS in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 45.