Boston Red Sox at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mason BarnettPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras homered to center (414 feet).5–4
- 8Abreu homered to center (422 feet).4–4
- 6Cortes hit sacrifice fly to left, Butler scored.3–4
- 5Rafaela doubled to left, Seigler scored on error and Monasterio scored, Rafaela safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Walton.3–3
- 5Monasterio singled to center, Durbin scored.1–3
- 4Walton singled to right, Butler scored on error, McNeil to second, McNeil safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Abreu.0–3
- 4Butler doubled to right, Heim scored.0–2
- 3Wilson singled to center, Cortes scored, Kurtz to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 63%
- ML BOS -196 / ATH +161
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 59.0%, market 63.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -173
- ATH +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.6 – 4.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +16 | BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Mason Barnett: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +63 Elo | BOS 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 63.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.230th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 4th of 3031–22 | Road vs home | 21–3230th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301535 | Elo rating | 144728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–53 | 50–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–38 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 26–15 | 39–30 |
| Overs–unders | 46–57–4 | 51–53–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 14–7 ATH in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.