Boston Red Sox at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Payton TollePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Heim homered to center (419 feet).4–2
- 6Rafaela homered to left center (382 feet), Wong scored, Contreras scored and Abreu scored.4–1
- 1Soderstrom homered to left center (375 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 64%
- ML BOS -205 / ATH +167
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.8%, market 64.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -179
- ATH +179 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.6 – 4.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −1 | BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +62 Elo | BOS 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 64.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.230th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 5th of 3029–21 | Road vs home | 20–3029th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 5th of 301533 | Elo rating | 144828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–52 | 49–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–37 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 26–15 | 38–28 |
| Overs–unders | 46–54–4 | 51–50–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 12–6 ATH in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.
