Boston Red Sox at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Andruw MonasterioBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Jonah HeimBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Monasterio homered to left center (428 feet), González scored.4–2
- 6Sogard singled to center, Durbin scored.2–2
- 5Butler homered to center (422 feet).1–2
- 5Jones homered to left (375 feet).1–1
- 2Heim homered to center (418 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML BOS -150 / ATH +124
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.5%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -134
- ATH +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 5.8 – 5.2 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −4 | BOS: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +59 Elo | BOS 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.230th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 5th of 3030–22 | Road vs home | 21–3129th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 5th of 301533 | Elo rating | 144828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–53 | 50–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–38 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 26–15 | 39–29 |
| Overs–unders | 46–56–4 | 51–52–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 13–7 ATH in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.