New York Yankees at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Spencer JonesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Busch singled to left, Bregman scored, C. Kelly to second.2–5
- 7Suzuki singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored, Suzuki out stretching at second. New York Yankees challenged: call on the field was overturned.2–4
- 7Crow-Armstrong tripled to right, Ramirez scored.2–3
- 7Hoerner homered to left (372 feet).2–2
- 7Jones homered to left center (370 feet).2–1
- 5Caballero singled to right, Jones scored, Sánchez to third.1–1
- 1Crow-Armstrong scored on Fried wild pitch.0–1
- 1Crow-Armstrong scored on Fried wild pitch.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML NYY +103 / CHC -124
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 50.6%, market 52.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -112
- NYY +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 2.9 – 3.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −13 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: David Peterson: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +4 Elo | CHC 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 5th of 3036–25 | Road vs home | 30–238th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 15414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–52 | 53–57 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 41–44 | 26–43 |
| Underdog | 17–8 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 46–59–5 | 56–48–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 5–5 CHC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.