Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake BennettPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Monasterio scored on a passed ball by Alfonzo.8–4
- 8Monasterio scored on a passed ball by Alfonzo.8–4
- 8Durbin scored on Mills wild pitch, Monasterio to third on wild pitch by Mills.7–4
- 8Durbin scored on Mills wild pitch, Monasterio to third on wild pitch by Mills.7–4
- 7Pages doubled to left, Muncy scored.6–4
- 6Duran homered to center (420 feet).6–3
- 3Yoshida homered to right (374 feet).5–3
- 3Abreu homered to right center (431 feet).4–3
- 3Rafaela homered to left center (388 feet).3–3
- 2Pages singled to right, Muncy and T. Hernández scored, Ohtani to third.2–3
- 2Alfonzo grounded out to shortstop, Tucker scored, Muncy to second, T. Hernández to third.2–1
- 1Durbin singled to center, Abreu scored, Yoshida to third.2–0
- 1Yoshida singled to left, Rafaela scored, Abreu to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML BOS +153 / LAD -186
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -165
- BOS +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −23 | BOS: Jake Bennett: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 1.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +10 Elo | LAD 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3034–22 | Road vs home | 33–225th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 5th of 301540 | Elo rating | 15661st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–54 | 52–59 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–39 | 46–57 |
| Underdog | 28–15 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 47–59–4 | 50–59–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–6 LAD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.