Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Payton TollePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching8.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wong grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Monasterio scored, Duran out at second.3–2
- 3Rafaela homered to left center (402 feet).2–2
- 2T. Hernández homered to right (374 feet), Freeman scored.1–2
- 1Rafaela homered to left center (389 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML BOS +157 / LAD -191
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.5%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -169
- BOS +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 4.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +16 | BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +67 Elo | LAD 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3033–22 | Road vs home | 33–215th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 5th of 301538 | Elo rating | 15671st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–54 | 52–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–39 | 46–56 |
| Underdog | 27–15 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 47–58–4 | 50–58–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–6 LAD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.