Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Busch singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored and Suzuki scored on error, Busch safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Tucker, C. Kelly safe at third on error.5–10
- 6C. Kelly walked, Happ scored, Suzuki to second, Crow-Armstrong to third. Chicago Cubs challenged: call on the field was overturned.5–8
- 6T. Hernández homered to left center (443 feet).5–7
- 5Busch homered to left center (381 feet).4–7
- 4Alfonzo singled to center, Tucker scored on fielding error by center fielder Crow-Armstrong, T. Hernández to second.4–6
- 3C. Kelly homered to left (394 feet), Bregman scored.3–6
- 2Alcántara homered to left center (392 feet), Swanson scored.3–4
- 1Suzuki homered to left center (367 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.3–2
- 1Edman homered to left (394 feet), Ohtani scored and Pages scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 53%
- ML LAD -125 / CHC +104
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 49.6%, market 53.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -113
- CHC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.9 – 3.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +12 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +3 Elo | CHC 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 1st of 3036–20 | Road vs home | 31–249th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 1st of 301564 | Elo rating | 15423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–60 | 54–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 46–58 | 27–44 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 51–59–2 | 57–49–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–12 CHC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.