Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Kyle TuckerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoerner homered to left center (381 feet).1–5
- 7Suzuki singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–4
- 7Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Swanson scored.1–3
- 6Hoerner reached on infield single to second, Bregman scored, Busch to second.1–2
- 3Swanson homered to left center (401 feet).1–1
- 2Tucker homered to left center (376 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -186 / CHC +174
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 49.7%, market 64.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -178
- CHC +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 3.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +9 | LAD: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +2 Elo | CHC 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 1st of 3036–21 | Road vs home | 32–248th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301561 | Elo rating | 15454th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–61 | 55–58 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 46–59 | 27–44 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 28–14 |
| Overs–unders | 52–59–2 | 58–49–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–13 CHC in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 24.