Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Cubs- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Crow-Armstrong scored on throwing error by catcher Valenzuela, Suzuki stole second.2–3
- 11Crow-Armstrong scored on throwing error by catcher Valenzuela, Suzuki stole second.2–3
- 9Bregman homered to left (368 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.2–2
- 7Kirk singled to left, Giménez scored.2–0
- 1Okamoto scored on a disengagement violation, Springer to second on a disengagement violation.1–0
- 1Okamoto scored on a disengagement violation, Springer to second on a disengagement violation.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML TOR -101 / CHC -106
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.1%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -102
- TOR +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +23 | −10 | TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 1.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: David Peterson: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +35 Elo | CHC 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.94th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3026–30 | Road vs home | 34–248th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301498 | Elo rating | 15483rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–60 | 56–59 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–39 | 27–45 |
| Underdog | 31–21 | 29–14 |
| Overs–unders | 56–55–4 | 59–50–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–6 CHC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.