St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-5
- Quinn MathewsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kirk singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored and Springer scored.1–5
- 7Springer doubled to right, Giménez scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.1–3
- 6Winn doubled to center, Herrera scored.1–2
- 4Urías hit sacrifice fly to center, Clement scored, Straw to third.0–2
- 3Springer singled to left, Schneider scored, Springer to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML STL +147 / TOR -179
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.3%, market 61.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -158
- STL +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.5 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −20 | STL: Quinn Mathews (no track record yet) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +16 Elo | TOR 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3026–24 | Road vs home | 27–3022nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 24th of 301482 | Elo rating | 149816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–50 | 52–58 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–26 | 23–38 |
| Underdog | 48–24 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders | 43–61–6 | 54–52–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–8 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.