Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Luis UriasBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Andres ChaparroBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Chaparro homered to left (432 feet).3–2
- 4Straw singled to center, Okamoto scored, Urías to third.3–1
- 3Clement doubled to left, Straw scored.2–1
- 3Urías homered to center (416 feet).1–1
- 2García Jr. doubled to right, Nuñez scored, Wood to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 53%
- ML TOR +104 / WSH -126
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- WSH: Elo 54.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.9 – 5.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +6 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Eddy Yean (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +30 Elo | WSH 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 20th of 3022–28 | Road vs home | 22–3229th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301495 | Elo rating | 148422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–57 | 64–42 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 22–38 | 16–13 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 48–29 |
| Overs–unders | 53–49–4 | 59–41–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–3 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.