Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Moreno hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored.3–2
- 4Crews homered to left center (405 feet), Abrams scored.2–2
- 2Marte grounded into fielder's choice to first, Locklear scored, Tawa out at second. Arizona Diamondbacks challenged: call on the field was upheld.2–0
- 2Tawa reached on bunt single to first, Kepler scored, Locklear to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML ARI -126 / WSH +104
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.9 – 4.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −10 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Carson Palmquist: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +32 Elo | ARI 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3023–27 | Road vs home | 20–3130th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301510 | Elo rating | 148125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–47 | 61–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 38–19 | 47–29 |
| Overs–unders | 42–53–8 | 58–39–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 13–8 WSH in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.