Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kohl DrakePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arenado grounded out to third, Moreno scored, Waldschmidt to second, Marte to third.7–10
- 9Waldschmidt singled to left, Carroll scored, Marte to second, Moreno to third.6–10
- 8Wood homered to left center (418 feet).5–10
- 8Locklear hit sacrifice fly to center, Waldschmidt scored.5–9
- 7García Jr. reached on infield single to pitcher, Young scored on throwing error by pitcher Garcia, García Jr. to second.4–9
- 7Young doubled to left, House scored.4–8
- 7House doubled to center, Crews scored.4–7
- 5Abrams homered to center (399 feet), Lile scored.4–6
- 5Wood homered to center (430 feet), Nuñez scored.4–4
- 5Moreno hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored, Perdomo to second.4–2
- 4Marte homered to center (411 feet).3–2
- 3Abrams homered to center (390 feet). Umpire review: call on the field was overturned.2–2
- 3Perdomo homered to right (356 feet).2–1
- 2Young singled to center, House scored.1–1
- 1Moreno doubled to left, Perdomo scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML ARI -117 / WSH -103
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.8%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- ARI -106
- WSH +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.1 – 4.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −7 | ARI: Kohl Drake: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +12 Elo | ARI 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 21–3230th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301509 | Elo rating | 148122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–49 | 63–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–29 | 15–13 |
| Underdog | 38–20 | 48–29 |
| Overs–unders | 42–55–8 | 58–41–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 14–9 WSH in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.