Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Mitch BrattPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7McCann singled to right, Tawa scored.3–5
- 5Abrams homered to right center (390 feet).2–5
- 3Lile tripled to right, Crews scored and Young scored.2–4
- 3Abrams doubled to center, Chaparro scored and Mead scored.2–2
- 3Moreno singled to center, Waldschmidt scored and Carroll scored, Moreno thrown out at second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 55%
- ML ARI +113 / WSH -136
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- WSH: Elo 50.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -123
- ARI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +15 | ARI: Mitch Bratt: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +2 Elo | WSH 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 3024–27 | Road vs home | 20–3230th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301511 | Elo rating | 148024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–48 | 62–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–29 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 38–19 | 48–29 |
| Overs–unders | 42–54–8 | 58–40–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 14–8 WSH in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.