St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Luis UriasBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urías singled to left, Springer scored and Varsho scored, Clement to second.1–3
- 6Okamoto doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–1
- 5Walker singled to center, Church scored, Wetherholt to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML STL +163 / TOR -198
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.1%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -175
- STL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +20 | STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Dylan Cease: team allows 1.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +43 Elo | TOR 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 8th of 3026–23 | Road vs home | 26–3023rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301484 | Elo rating | 149717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–49 | 51–58 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–26 | 22–38 |
| Underdog | 48–23 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders | 43–60–6 | 54–51–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–7 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.