Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- CJ Van EykPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Springer homered to center (437 feet), Lukes scored and Okamoto scored.6–8
- 5Young hit sacrifice fly to left, Lile scored.3–8
- 5Okamoto homered to center (415 feet).3–7
- 4Crews homered to center (408 feet).2–7
- 4García Jr. homered to right (375 feet), Young scored.2–6
- 4Giménez grounded out to shortstop, Valenzuela scored.2–4
- 3Guerrero Jr. reached on infield single to third, Lukes scored on throwing error by third baseman Vivas, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–4
- 1Young walked, Ruiz scored, Vivas to second, Lile to third.0–4
- 1Nuñez hit sacrifice fly to right, Abrams scored, Ruiz to third.0–3
- 1Lile walked, Crews scored, Ruiz to second, Abrams to third.0–2
- 1Ruiz walked, Wood scored, Abrams to second, Crews to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 55%
- ML TOR +112 / WSH -135
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 49.6%, market 54.9%
- Fair odds
- WSH -122
- TOR +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +1 | TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +3 Elo | TOR 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 54.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 19th of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 22–3329th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15043rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 148224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–57 | 64–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 22–38 | 16–14 |
| Underdog | 28–19 | 48–29 |
| Overs–unders | 53–50–4 | 59–42–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–3 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.