Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Jesus SanchezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Alvarez singled to right, Peña scored, Alvarez out stretching at second. Houston Astros challenged: call on the field was upheld.5–4
- 10Clement homered to left (391 feet), Urías scored.5–3
- 6Sánchez homered to right (398 feet), Okamoto scored.3–3
- 6Okamoto singled to center, Straw scored.1–3
- 3Wade Jr. singled to center, Walker scored.0–3
- 3Walker doubled to left, Varsho scored.0–2
- 3Altuve homered to left (401 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 67%
- ML TOR +195 / HOU -208
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.7%, market 66.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -199
- TOR +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.2 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +9 | TOR: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +32 Elo | HOU 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 66.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 19th of 3025–30 | Road vs home | 30–2816th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 30 |
| 16th of 301497 | Elo rating | 150412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–60 | 61–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 24–39 | 21–28 |
| Underdog | 30–21 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 55–55–4 | 61–48–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 10–15 HOU in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 25.