St. Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Luis UriasBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker singled to left, Jordan scored and Nootbaar scored.5–1
- 9Torres scored on error, Nootbaar safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Urías, Nootbaar safe at second on error, Jordan safe at third on error.3–1
- 9Fermín singled to center, Winn scored, Torres to second.2–1
- 8Urías doubled to left, Giménez scored.1–1
- 3Nootbaar doubled to left, Church scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML STL +113 / TOR -136
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- STL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −12 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +40 Elo | TOR 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 9th of 3026–25 | Road vs home | 28–3022nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 150015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–51 | 53–58 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–26 | 24–38 |
| Underdog | 48–25 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders | 43–62–6 | 54–53–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–9 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.