Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Myles StrawBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Chad DallasPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Astros- Taylor TrammellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Altuve singled to center, Walker scored.2–7
- 5Trammell homered to right (388 feet), Walker scored and Altuve scored.2–6
- 5Altuve reached on infield single to shortstop, Alvarez scored, Walker to second.2–3
- 5Straw scored on Wesneski wild pitch.2–2
- 5Straw scored on Wesneski wild pitch.2–2
- 5Straw tripled to center, Giménez scored.1–2
- 4Smith singled to left, Trammell scored on error, Smith safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Sánchez, Diaz safe at third on error.0–2
- 4Diaz singled to left, Altuve scored, Trammell to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML TOR +131 / HOU -140
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -135
- TOR +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | TOR: Trey Yesavage: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +19 Elo | HOU 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 16th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 29–2817th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Elo rating | 150213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–59 | 60–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 24–39 | 20–28 |
| Underdog | 30–20 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 54–55–4 | 60–48–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 10–14 HOU in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 24.