Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Diaz reached on infield single to third, Walker scored on error, Diaz to second, Trammell to second, Trammell safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Guzman.7–4
- 8Adell hit sacrifice fly to right, Schanuel scored.6–4
- 7Diaz reached on infield single to first, Altuve scored.6–3
- 6Smith scored on Farris wild pitch, Spence to second on wild pitch by Farris.5–3
- 6Smith scored on Farris wild pitch, Spence to second on wild pitch by Farris.5–3
- 6Smith doubled to left, Diaz scored and Trammell scored.4–3
- 3Peña homered to center (401 feet).2–3
- 2Diaz homered to left center (425 feet).1–3
- 1Adell singled to left, Grissom scored.0–3
- 1Grissom doubled to left, Neto scored and Trout scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML HOU -126 / LAA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 56.1%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.9 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −11 | HOU: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +42 Elo | HOU 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 11th of 3028–28 | Road vs home | 24–3026th of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Elo rating | 144529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–53 | 50–58 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–27 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 39–26 | 42–36 |
| Overs–unders | 56–47–6 | 49–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 31–17 LAA in their last 48 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 48.