Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Vaughn GrissomBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Devers singled to left, J. Rodríguez scored, Eldridge to second, Arraez to third.6–7
- 8Grissom homered to left (381 feet), Soler scored.6–6
- 7Susac hit sacrifice fly to left, McCray scored.4–6
- 5Trout hit sacrifice fly to left, Heineman scored.4–5
- 5Heineman tripled to right, Adell scored and Guzman scored.3–5
- 3Schmitt homered to left (412 feet), Eldridge scored and Devers scored.1–5
- 1Devers homered to left (362 feet), Eldridge scored.1–2
- 1Schanuel singled to right, Neto scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 59%
- ML LAA +131 / SF -158
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- SF: Elo 56.4%, market 58.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -141
- LAA +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.6 – 4.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −5 | LAA: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +45 Elo | SF 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 58.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–34 | Road vs home | 22–2522nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 29th of 301450 | Elo rating | 147626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–54 | 49–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 16–24 |
| Underdog | 41–35 | 33–29 |
| Overs–unders | 46–56–1 | 46–46–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–3 SF in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.