Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alvarez singled to center, Allen scored, Vázquez to third.3–2
- 5Soler doubled to left, Trout scored.2–2
- 4Walker homered to left (411 feet).2–1
- 3Grissom singled to left, Neto scored, Soler to second.1–1
- 1Alvarez homered to right center (427 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML HOU -114 / LAA -106
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.2%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +9 | HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +29 Elo | HOU 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 3027–28 | Road vs home | 24–2925th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 144629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–53 | 50–57 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–27 | 8–21 |
| Underdog | 38–26 | 42–36 |
| Overs–unders | 56–46–6 | 49–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 30–17 LAA in their last 47 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 47.