Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Carson WhisenhuntPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arraez doubled to right, Cavanaugh scored and Adames scored.4–3
- 5Arraez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Adames scored on throwing error by shortstop Neto, Arraez to second, Cavanaugh out at second.4–1
- 4Adell homered to center (446 feet), Schanuel scored.4–0
- 4Soler homered to center (419 feet).2–0
- 1Soler grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Trout scored, Grissom out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 53%
- ML LAA -126 / SF +104
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.6 pts
- LAA: Elo 40.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +8 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Carson Whisenhunt: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +66 Elo | SF 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 30th of 3017–36 | Road vs home | 24–2521st of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 29th of 301447 | Elo rating | 147926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–55 | 50–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 42–36 | 33–29 |
| Overs–unders | 48–56–1 | 48–46–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–5 SF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.