Los Angeles Angels at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-3
- Ryan JohnsonPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grissom walked, Siri scored, Lowe to second, O'Hoppe to third.2–9
- 7Trout grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Siri scored, Neto out at second, O'Hoppe to third.1–9
- 4Devers homered to left center (401 feet), Susac scored and Arraez scored.0–9
- 4Arraez singled to left, Gilbert scored, Susac to second.0–6
- 3Lee homered to right (365 feet), Devers scored and Schmitt scored.0–5
- 3Schmitt singled to right, Ramos scored, Devers to second.0–2
- 3Devers singled to left, Arraez scored on error, Ramos to second, Ramos safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Siri.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 55%
- ML LAA +113 / SF -136
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- SF: Elo 56.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -123
- LAA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | LAA: Ryan Johnson: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +46 Elo | SF 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 3017–35 | Road vs home | 23–2522nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 29th of 301449 | Elo rating | 147726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–54 | 49–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 16–25 |
| Underdog | 42–35 | 33–29 |
| Overs–unders | 47–56–1 | 47–46–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 6–4 SF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.