Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Taylor TrammellBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Angels- Vaughn GrissomBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alvarez scored, Altuve safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Bachman, Smith to second, Paredes to third.6–4
- 9Wade Jr. walked, Peña scored, Paredes to second, Alvarez to third. Los Angeles Angels challenged: call on the field was upheld.5–4
- 9Paredes hit by pitch, Spence scored, Alvarez to second, Peña to third. Los Angeles Angels challenged: call on the field was upheld.4–4
- 9Spence grounded into fielder's choice to second, Trammell scored on error, Allen safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Grissom, Allen safe at third on error.3–4
- 8Alvarez singled to left, Peña scored.2–4
- 4Trammell homered to center (412 feet).1–4
- 3Adell doubled to right, Lowe scored.0–4
- 3Grissom homered to left center (395 feet).0–3
- 1Grissom singled to right, Trout scored, Soler to second.0–2
- 1Schanuel hit sacrifice fly to center, Neto scored, Trout to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML HOU -106 / LAA -114
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- LAA: Elo 49.0%, market 50.9%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +21 | HOU: Tatsuya Imai: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Walbert Urena: team allows 1.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +7 Elo | HOU 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 50.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 14th of 3026–28 | Road vs home | 24–2825th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301492 | Elo rating | 144829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–53 | 50–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–27 | 8–20 |
| Underdog | 37–26 | 42–36 |
| Overs–unders | 55–46–6 | 48–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 29–17 LAA in their last 46 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 46.