Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Joc PedersonBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Spence singled to center, Allen scored, Diaz to second.2–11
- 7Paredes singled to right, Peña scored, Alvarez to second.2–10
- 7Peña doubled to left, Smith scored and Spence scored.2–9
- 7Diaz homered to left center (407 feet).2–7
- 6Carter singled to right, Seager scored, Duran to second.2–6
- 6Pederson homered to right center (399 feet).1–6
- 5Walker homered to left center (428 feet).0–6
- 5Paredes homered to left (395 feet).0–5
- 4Peña singled to left, Smith scored.0–4
- 2Alvarez singled to left, Diaz and Wade Jr. scored, Peña to third.0–3
- 2Wade Jr. doubled to right, Trammell scored, Diaz to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML TEX +109 / HOU -131
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.3%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.6 – 3.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +5 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +9 Elo | HOU 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 13th of 3027–29 | Road vs home | 26–2719th of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Elo rating | 149718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–60 | 57–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 19–36 | 18–27 |
| Underdog | 30–24 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders | 56–46–7 | 57–47–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 24–32 HOU in their last 56 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 56.