Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4
- MacKenzie GorePitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Rays- Ryan ViladeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ian SeymourPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 1Vilade homered to left center (420 feet), Aranda scored.0–3
- 1Díaz homered to right (372 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML TEX +119 / TB -144
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- TB: Elo 57.9%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- TEX +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.5 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +11 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Casey Legumina: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +55 Elo | TB 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3027–27 | Road vs home | 38–161st of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15207th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–59 | 62–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–36 | 38–24 |
| Underdog | 29–23 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 56–44–7 | 47–54–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 15–6 TB in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.