Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Austin HedgesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Rays- Richie PalaciosBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane McClanahanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hedges homered to left (374 feet), Arias scored.3–11
- 8Palacios homered to right center (388 feet), Mullins scored and DeLuca scored.1–11
- 8Simpson hit sacrifice fly to center, Aranda scored.1–8
- 7Fortes doubled to center, Williamson scored.1–7
- 6Caminero singled to left, Fortes scored, Díaz to second.1–6
- 4Fortes singled to center, Simpson scored, Williamson to second, Vilade to third.1–5
- 4Williamson grounded into fielder's choice to first, DeLuca scored, Vilade to second, Simpson to third.1–4
- 4DeLuca singled to left, Mullins scored.1–3
- 4Rocchio doubled to left, DeLauter scored.1–2
- 2Vilade homered to left (365 feet), DeLuca scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 56%
- ML CLE +117 / TB -141
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- TB: Elo 53.3%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -127
- CLE +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.2 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | 0 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane McClanahan: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +23 Elo | TB 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 10th of 3027–24 | Road vs home | 35–151st of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15034th of 30 |
| 12th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15168th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–51 | 60–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–35 | 36–22 |
| Underdog | 37–16 | 24–20 |
| Overs–unders | 49–55 | 46–51–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 12–11 TB in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.