Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Alvarez doubled to right, Smith scored and Allen scored, Wade Jr. to third.3–7
- 7Wade Jr. reached on infield single to first, Altuve scored, Allen to second, Smith to third.3–5
- 7Smith singled to left, Trammell scored, Altuve to second.3–4
- 7Nimmo homered to right (414 feet).3–3
- 5Duran singled to left, Burger scored.2–3
- 5Carter singled to right, Nimmo scored, Carter thrown out at second, Burger to third.1–3
- 4Peña homered to left (364 feet), Smith scored.0–3
- 3Altuve reached on infield single to third, Alvarez scored, Trammell to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 56%
- ML TEX +118 / HOU -142
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.8%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -128
- TEX +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +10 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +33 Elo | HOU 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 17th of 3027–31 | Road vs home | 28–2715th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Elo rating | 150114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–62 | 59–53 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 19–37 | 19–27 |
| Underdog | 30–25 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 58–46–7 | 59–47–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 24–34 HOU in their last 58 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 58.